Tell Me How This Ends

Scattershots on Iran, Israel, and Trump

Over ten years ago, President Donald Trump made his way down those escalators and transformed America’s understanding of politics. Like FDR before him, Trump will reshape the American federal government, whether we like it or not. If you listen to that famous speech again (I wouldn’t recommend that), you’ll hear some of his greatest hits: 1) Tariffs rock, 2) Immigrants are bad, and 3) Iran cannot have a bomb.

Ten years later, President Trump continues to prioritize the top two issues and now has the potential opportunity to help Israel eliminate Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. For many Democrats and MAGA followers, this is a bridge too far. They frequently mention their favorite American bogeymen: 1) neocons, 2) regime change, 3) Weapons of Mass Destruction, and 4) forever war.

As someone whom the Iranians have hunted for most of my adult life, I have a hard time finding much sympathy for those who suddenly believe we can find a diplomatic way out. Just this week, Iranian proxies attacked American forces in Iraq through their Shia proxy networks. However, according to all those well-credentialed experts, there’s somehow a difference between Iranian proxies who are funded and led by Iran’s elite Quds Forces. The Iranians will gladly kill and shoot at American forces at will if all they have to pay is a few throwaways like Shia extremists.

I also find it hard to believe that Benjamin Netanyahu crossed the proverbial Rubicon without the capacity to destroy Iran’s crown jewel—the Fordow enrichment plant. However, Bibi would prefer not to lose Mossad and Israeli commandos unless Trump opts out of participating in a bombing campaign. It’s possible that the IDF can replicate their daring Syria raid in Iran, but the tyranny of distance is a very real thing.

As Trump maneuvers more American forces into the region, the entire world is waiting to see whether he will deploy the B-2s. If he does so and successfully destroys Fordow, Trump will fulfill a pledge that every American president of the 21st Century has made: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

However, war is full of surprises, and the Iranians are unlikely to take it on the chin, especially if they lose Fordow. American forces in the region could likely be on the receiving end of ballistic missile attacks, which could force Trump to target the Iranian Navy and other strategic sites, including the Ayatollah. Iran’s asymmetric forces would likely get seriously involved, launching attacks across the region.

Ultimately, I support Trump giving our B-2 pilots the chance to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, we must all remain realistic about this mission: attacking a regional power, even one whose conventional forces have consistently been overstated, isn’t foolproof. That’s not what those on the fence want to hear, but that’s the truth about war: once you're in it, you're in it.

Here’s a bit of information that might ease your anxiety: United States Central Command has been eager for a potential war with Iran for a long time. We’re not entering such an operation without preparing adequately. Contrary to the fools on X and the talking heads on TV, we’re not about to invade Iran and make another thunder run to Tehran.

The Iranian regime has more than earned this. They’ve earned it on the streets of Baghdad by raping children and dissappearing families. They’ve earned it in Syria by propping up Assad for decades. And they’ve earned it in Afghanistan by supporting the Taliban’s war that killed tens of thousands.

Is it possible that the regime will collapse? Sure. However, it is just as possible that it will tighten its grip on power by focusing, like Hussein did after the first Persian Gulf War, on eliminating those who dared to stand up to the regime. Ultimately, nobody knows how this will end.

Will Trump order an attack? He’s moving forces in the region and has already moved vulnerable air assets out of Al Udeid. Perhaps he’s just being prudent, but the Iranians tried to kill him twice and, like W with Iraq, that can make war more personal, for better or worse. In the end, trying to predict Trump’s moves is fraught with peril. At this moment, gun to my head, I say no because he just delayed the decision for “2 weeks,” but perhaps this is just a sophisticated ruse. Who knows?

Lastly, the idea that this is Bibi’s war is incredibly ignorant. The main opposition leader, Yair Lapid, not only supports Bibi’s strikes but also believes the United States should enter the conflict. These strikes are overwhelmingly popular in Israel because Israel’s fundamental view of the region shifted on October 7. Unlike the United States, which became self-absorbed after 9/11 and lost interest, Israel cannot afford to risk Iran obtaining nukes.